Extended Mortgage Terms: Strategic Analysis of Australia's 40-Year Lending Trend

Good morning, everyone! It's Tuesday, February 25, and today we're going to talk about mortgage rates. NAB has announced some really exciting news: they're expanding their mortgage offset capabilities!

This is a big deal, and it shows how more and more of our customers are using offset facilities since the pandemic. The data tells us that Australian homeowners are finding new ways to manage their mortgage debt, and we're here to support them every step of the way.

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Today's reading time is 7 minutes. - Miko Santos

MARKET CLOSE

Presented by CommSec

The Australian share market was pretty much flat on Monday. The banks did well, but the mining, energy, and tech stocks didn't.

ZELLER

Zeller Disrupts Australian Startup Banking with Integrated Financial Platform

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In a historic move for Australia's technology industry, fintech entrepreneur Zeller has revealed a complete banking solution made especially for tech startups, so filling a major void in the financial services scene of the nation. Supported by striking data showing 87% of founders identify financial management as their main operational challenge, the launch of Zeller for Startups marks a dramatic change in how emerging technology companies access and manage their financial operations.

The initiative comes at a crucial time for Australia's startup ecosystem, Zeller's research reveals that startups typically juggle five separate platforms alongside their primary bank account, highlighting the inefficiency of traditional banking solutions in meeting the unique needs of technology businesses.

The Key Points:

  • Research indicates that 85% of founders lack confidence in traditional banks' ability to support startup growth and scaling phases.

  • The new platform reduces account setup complexity, requiring 60% fewer clicks compared to traditional bank onboarding processes.

  • Integrated features include high-interest savings accounts with a 3.2% p.a. variable rate, unlimited debit cards, and comprehensive expense management tools.

  • Strategic partnerships with key service providers like Employment Hero, Xero, and Pop Business offer additional value through exclusive discounts to users.

Why It Matters: This development signals a significant transformation in Australia's financial services landscape, particularly for the technology sector. The introduction of an integrated financial platform specifically designed for startups addresses a longstanding gap in the market that has historically hindered the growth and operational efficiency of emerging tech companies, providing a tailored solution for startup needs. With traditional banks failing to adapt to the unique needs of technology businesses, Zeller's solution has the potential to accelerate the growth of Australia's startup ecosystem.

Bottom Line:

From a market perspective, Zeller's expansion into the startup sector represents a strategic move aimed at capturing a significantly underserved market segment. With the company already serving 85,000 SMEs in just 3.5 years, this targeted approach to tech startups could accelerate their market penetration and potentially disrupt traditional banking relationships.

For investors and market observers, this development signals increasing competition in the fintech sector and suggests potential shifts in how financial services will be delivered to high-growth technology companies. The high adoption rate of Zeller's existing services indicates a strong potential for rapid market acceptance of this new platform among users.

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EMPLOYMENT

Market Analysis: 6.2M Australians Consider 40-Year Mortgages Amid Housing Affordability Crisis

The Australian mortgage market is witnessing a significant structural shift as extended lending terms gain traction among potential homebuyers. Fresh data from Finder's Consumer Sentiment Tracker reveals that 30% of Australians – representing approximately 6.2 million people – would consider 40-year mortgage terms to enhance affordability, signaling a fundamental change in home financing strategies.

This emerging trend coincides with the Australian Bureau of Statistics reporting average home loan sizes reaching a record $641,416 (September 2024), marking a substantial 37% increase from September 2019's $467,403. This trajectory presents both opportunities and systemic risks for Australia's housing finance sector.

The Key points:

  • Average loan size has surged 37% in 5 years, reaching $641,416 (September 2024)

  • Four lenders currently offer 40-year mortgages, with three focusing exclusively on first-home buyers

  • Monthly payment reduction of $300+ on 40-year vs. 30-year terms for average loans

  • Additional lifetime borrowing cost of $316,000 for extended term mortgages

Why it matters: From a structural perspective, the emergence of 40-year mortgages represents a significant evolution in Australia's lending landscape. The concentration of these products among first-home buyer-focused lenders suggests a strategic market segmentation, targeting demographics most impacted by affordability constraints. This development warrants careful analysis of both systemic risk implications and potential market distortions.

BottomLine:

While facilitating immediate market access through reduced monthly payments, these products introduce significant long-term capital inefficiencies, with an additional $316,000 in borrowing costs over the loan term. For institutional investors and market makers, this trend signals potential opportunities in mortgage-backed securities with extended duration profiles, while also raising questions about long-term market stability and borrower resilience.

The Key considerations:

1. Duration Risk: Extended mortgage terms significantly increase portfolio duration risk, particularly relevant in the current volatile interest rate environment.

2. Market Liquidity: The concentration of these products among select lenders may impact secondary market liquidity and pricing dynamics.

3. Systemic Implications: Growing adoption of 40-year terms could influence property market valuations and overall financial system stability.

4. Investment Strategy: Opportunities exist in both direct lending and structured products, though careful duration management becomes increasingly critical.

The emergence of this lending innovation requires sophisticated portfolio management strategies and enhanced risk assessment frameworks to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.

BIG PICTURE

ASB

New Zealand Retail Recovery: Q4 2024 Shows Promise Despite Economic Headwinds

New Zealand's retail sector demonstrated resilience in Q4 2024, with sales increasing by 0.9% compared to an expected 0.5% rise. This better-than-expected performance, along with a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter rise in core retail volumes, indicates a potential shift in consumer spending habits and the beginning of a broader economic recovery.

Various factors, like the effect of lower interest rates on borrowing expenses and the shift in consumer preferences towards sustainable products, are shaping the retail landscape. The data paints a convincing picture of a gradual and consistent recovery, with all 16 regions showing increased seasonally-adjusted spending values, highlighting notable progress in regions such as Queenstown and Christchurch in the South Island.

The Key Points:

  • Retail volumes showed a 0.9% quarterly increase, outperforming market consensus of 0.5%, with core retail volumes demonstrating robust growth at 1.4%

  • The growth was led by accommodation (7.6%) and recreational goods (5.8%), showing a resurgence in spending on leisure and tourism-related items.

  • The retail deflator remained flat year-on-year, supported by price declines in fuel (-9.8%), electrical goods (-3.5%), and motor vehicles (-1.9%)

  • Regional performance exhibited significant diversity, with Tasman leading with a 4.4% quarterly growth rate and notable enhancements in tourism regions across the South Island.

 

Why It Matters: This retail trade data serves as a crucial economic indicator, suggesting that New Zealand's economy may be entering a recovery phase after the sharp downturn in mid-2024. The combination of lower inflation, tax reductions, and decreasing interest rates is creating a favorable environment for consumer spending. For instance, the recent tax cuts have directly increased disposable income, further stimulating spending patterns. The data indicates a shifting consumer landscape where spending patterns are evolving from necessity-driven to more discretionary purchases, particularly in regions benefiting from tourism recovery.

Bottom Line:

From a financial perspective, the Q4 2024 retail trade data carries significant strategic implications for investment decisions such as portfolio diversification, sector-specific investments, and policy decisions related to economic stimulus.

The anticipated ongoing cuts in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (expected 25 basis point cuts in April and May 2025) along with more than half of home loans scheduled to be repriced in the next six months establish a potentially advantageous setting for consumer spending growth.

However, investors should be cautious due to potential challenges, including the effects of increasing unemployment on consumer sentiment and the risks linked to inflation pressures from a weakening New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and rising oil prices. The gradual nature of the recovery underscores the need for a strategic approach to retail sector investments. Investors should pay particular attention to regional variations; for example, investing in urban areas may require different strategies compared to rural regions.

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BUSINESS & MARKETS

➡️ WiseTech Global Board Crisis: Four Directors Resign Amid Leadership Dispute with Founder. WiseTech Global, a major tech company, faces a significant leadership change as four board directors resign due to disagreements with founder Richard White, while simultaneously announcing reduced revenue expectations due to delays in launching new products, signaling a period of corporate restructuring and strategic challenges.

➡️  Realestate.com.au Hits Record 12.4M Users as Property Interest Surges in 2025. Realestate.com.au has demonstrated unprecedented market dominance in January 2025, achieving record user engagement with 12.4 million visitors, while extending its competitive advantage through exclusive user retention and significantly higher platform engagement metrics.

➡️ Asian Markets Decline Following US Economic Data; German Election Lifts DAX. Global markets demonstrated divergent performance trends, with Asian indices largely following Wall Street's downturn while European markets showed selective strength, particularly in Frankfurt following Germany's pivotal election results.

POLITICS & WORLD AFFAIRS

➡️  Australia, New Zealand Announce Major Russia Sanctions Package on War Anniversary. On the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Australia and New Zealand increased their sanctions against Russia by targeting 149 new entities and individuals and 52 restrictions, respectively. Australia's total sanctions now exceed 1,400 measures backed by AU$1.5 billion in Ukrainian defence support.

➡️ Australia Fines Telegram $957,780 for Critical Delay in Terror and Child Safety Reporting. Telegram was fined $957,780 by Australia's eSafety Commissioner for a 160-day delay in responding to mandatory transparency reporting requirements for terrorist content and child safety measures. This comes amid rising national security concerns and ASIO's recent upgrade of Australia's terror threat level to "probable."

➡️ Coalition Plans $6bn Public Service Cut to Fund $8.5bn Medicare Boost. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has unveiled a controversial fiscal strategy to fund a $8.5 billion Medicare commitment through substantial public service reductions, projecting annual savings of $6 billion by targeting nearly all of the 36,000 positions added under the current Labour government, marking a major shift in public sector employment policy

JOB BOARD

➡️  Entain's Brisbane Hub Seeks AML Specialists as Gaming Sector Strengthens Compliance. Entain Australia & New Zealand's recruitment drive for weekend AML coverage reflects the gaming industry's intensifying focus on regulatory compliance, particularly as digital wagering platforms face heightened scrutiny across the Asia-Pacific region

➡️  Major Insurance Provider Strengthens Risk Governance with New Executive Role. MLC Life Insurance's recruitment of a General Manager, Risk signals a strategic reinforcement of risk governance at a pivotal moment for Australia's insurance sector. This executive search comes as the industry grapples with evolving regulatory frameworks and increasing complexity in risk management across its nearly million-customer portfolio.

➡️ Westpac Strengthens Product Governance with Senior Role Amid Regulatory Evolution. Westpac's recruitment for a Senior Manager of Product Governance reflects the financial sector's intensifying focus on regulatory compliance and product oversight, particularly as Australia's banking industry navigates complex regulatory frameworks including Design & Distribution Obligations (DDO) and anti-hawking legislation.

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